Climate legislation on the ropes or down for the count?

Yesterday's announcement from Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) can only be described as a savage blow to the solar plexus. Everyone was all set for a big press conference unveiling the legislation tomorrow but now nothing, at least for the time being.

Is this the end of climate legislation in 2010? Too early to tell of course but the calendar is getting busy - financial reform, immigration (zero legislative text in either the House or the Senate), and a Supreme Court nomination. Senators John Kerry (D-MA) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) have said they will continue to pursue the introduction and passage of a bill with or without Sen. Graham. My guess is they would be happier to have him on board.

Graham had, over the past several months, pushed hard for a comprehensive bill. Many in Washington thought he could bring a handful of other Republicans into the fold because of his pro-nuclear, pro-domestic oil and gas production, and pro-business point of view. To date, there's been no physical manifestation of that theory but a number of other Republican names have been included in the mix (e.g., Gregg (NH), Voinovich (OH), Corker (TN)). Without Graham, the likelihood of these Republicans jumping into the fray is slim to none.

So what now? It appears Kerry is hopeful that Graham will reconsider once the heat of the immigration announcement simmers down. I'm not in a position to judge whether that will happen but things are definitely looking dicey right now. Especially when you consider that Graham not only had the potential to bring Republicans on board but he also provided political cover for moderate Democrats wavering in their support of a comprehensive bill.

I'm not ready to label this latest development as apocalyptic. That said, Graham came close to walking the plank on a climate and energy bill and is obviously frustrated by the shift in policy priorities. If I were a betting man, I'd say the odds of him coming back to the tri-partisan fold are 5-1. But I'm not so don't take me up on it. Better to spend your time trying to figure out how we get climate legislation off the mat.