Showing posts with label Environmental Protection Agency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Environmental Protection Agency. Show all posts

Thursday, June 17, 2010

So what happens if we don't do anything?

The debate around climate change and clean energy has focused largely on the cost of taking action. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently released its analysis of a bill introduced by Sens. Kerry (D-MA) and Lieberman (I-CT). It found the cost to average consumers to be fairly negligible. But as the Economist points out, the analysis misses a critical element - the cost of inaction.

More and more we are seeing the real time impacts of climate change. Companies are already being encouraged to adopt relevant adaptation policies they will need in order to cope with an unpredictable and shifting climate in the coming decades. It's absolutely critical that while we debate various policy options moving forward we never lose sight of the fact that the cost of inaction will far outweigh the cost of action.

As many of you will know I'm a big fan of placing a price on carbon. Right now we get to emit greenhouse gases (GHGs) for free when we know their effect on the environment comes with a cost. Ezra Klein recently posted an excellent piece which focused on pricing externalities. In this case it was specific to oil but you only need to replace that term with CO2 or GHGs and you've got a strong argument for taking into account the full cost of carbon.

Without doing something now, we place ourselves at much greater risk to weather extremes. We're already committed to a certain amount of exposure, but why push the envelope further?

Friday, May 28, 2010

NAS & EPA - What More Do You Need?

Since the grand creation of GreenMachine2050, one of my main objectives has been to lay the foundation for the need to take action on climate change - because the science is clear and the potential catastrophic impacts require it. Don't forget to check out the all important disclaimer.

The one avid reader out there other than myself will be familiar with my Fact or Fiction pieces that I usually try to do on Fridays. These posts have been sporadic unfortunately and I think I'm going to move more towards addressing the problem and away from identifying the problem. The evidence is overwhelming and there are a number of dedicated sites that focus solely on the science such as RealClimate and Skeptical Science.

But before I do that, I want to draw your attention to recent reports issued by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The reports reinforce the scientific evidence that global warming is happening and is likely due to human activity and the increased production of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs).

The NAS reports, covering the science, mitigation, and adaptation, are the most recent US studies which make the case for urgent action. The report on science concludes that a strong, credible body of scientific evidence shows that climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems. In its report on mitigation, NAS concludes that meeting internationally discussed targets for limiting atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and associated increases in global average temperatures will require a major departure from business as usual in how the world uses and produces energy, and calls for some type of price on carbon. And finally, in its report on adaptation, NAS concludes that adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts, some well outside the realm of past experience.

The EPA, in its report entitled Climate Change Indicators in the United States, outlines recent climate impacts occurring in real time. Some of the key findings include:

- Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are increasing. Between 1990 and 2008, there has been about a 14 percent increase in emissions in the United States.

- Average temperatures are rising. Seven of the top 10 warmest years on record for the continental United States have occurred since 1990.

- Tropical cyclone intensity has increased in recent decades. Six of the 10 most active hurricane seasons have occurred since the mid-1990s.

- Sea levels are rising. From 1993 to 2008, sea level rose twice as fast as the long-term trend.

- Glaciers are melting. Loss of glacier volume appears to have accelerated over the last decade.

- The frequency of heat waves has risen steadily since the 1960s. The percentage of the U.S. population impacted by heat waves has also increased.

So, we've identified the problem and the cause. Now it's time to start talking about the remedies. Stay tuned.