Action in spite of Uncertainty

This is an excellent piece from the Financial Times about the uncertainty surrounding climate change. It goes to great lengths to spotlight areas of agreement and areas where the evidence is less clear (e.g., it's pretty much a given that we'll experience a 1.5C rise in temps, but not so clear cut on 4C).

If you don't have time to read the whole article, skip to the last paragraph:

Meanwhile, concentrations of airborne carbon increase year on year. Once carbon is in the atmosphere, it can stay there for a century, continuing its warming effect. The problem is that if action is delayed until these areas of uncertainty are resolved, the world may find it is too late.

I've written about this before. The whole point of dealing with climate change is to manage our exposure to risk despite the uncertainty.

Gotta act, gotta act, gotta act right now

I had the pleasure of meeting Dr. Julia Slingo from the UK's Met Office this week. She was in Washington for a couple of days on business. I participated in only a couple of her meetings but walked away with a renewed sense of purpose. It's always good to talk with an expert who can communicate lastest developments in climate science so effectively. It's also a reminder that, despite all the political distractions and white noise that tends to consume an outsized portion of the policy debate, we need to act urgently before we reach a breaking point.

NAS & EPA - What More Do You Need?

Since the grand creation of GreenMachine2050, one of my main objectives has been to lay the foundation for the need to take action on climate change - because the science is clear and the potential catastrophic impacts require it. Don't forget to check out the all important disclaimer.

The one avid reader out there other than myself will be familiar with my Fact or Fiction pieces that I usually try to do on Fridays. These posts have been sporadic unfortunately and I think I'm going to move more towards addressing the problem and away from identifying the problem. The evidence is overwhelming and there are a number of dedicated sites that focus solely on the science such as RealClimate and Skeptical Science.

But before I do that, I want to draw your attention to recent reports issued by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The reports reinforce the scientific evidence that global warming is happening and is likely due to human activity and the increased production of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs).

The NAS reports, covering the science, mitigation, and adaptation, are the most recent US studies which make the case for urgent action. The report on science concludes that a strong, credible body of scientific evidence shows that climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems. In its report on mitigation, NAS concludes that meeting internationally discussed targets for limiting atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and associated increases in global average temperatures will require a major departure from business as usual in how the world uses and produces energy, and calls for some type of price on carbon. And finally, in its report on adaptation, NAS concludes that adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts, some well outside the realm of past experience.

The EPA, in its report entitled Climate Change Indicators in the United States, outlines recent climate impacts occurring in real time. Some of the key findings include:

- Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are increasing. Between 1990 and 2008, there has been about a 14 percent increase in emissions in the United States.

- Average temperatures are rising. Seven of the top 10 warmest years on record for the continental United States have occurred since 1990.

- Tropical cyclone intensity has increased in recent decades. Six of the 10 most active hurricane seasons have occurred since the mid-1990s.

- Sea levels are rising. From 1993 to 2008, sea level rose twice as fast as the long-term trend.

- Glaciers are melting. Loss of glacier volume appears to have accelerated over the last decade.

- The frequency of heat waves has risen steadily since the 1960s. The percentage of the U.S. population impacted by heat waves has also increased.

So, we've identified the problem and the cause. Now it's time to start talking about the remedies. Stay tuned.

Communicating risk and uncertainty

Excellent op-ed in today's Guardian. Key quote comes at the end:

. . . despite the climate scientists' best efforts at scepticism, it simply has not been possible to rule out the risk of the sort of climate changes discussed above.

Handling uncertainty is key to the scientific method, but, conversely, the existence of uncertainty is not itself cause for inaction.

This is a critical point. There is no way we can have 100% certainty about what the world will look like in 2050. But there is an enormous body of evidence, reinforced by a recent Met Office study, that suggests the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is more urgent than ever. By the time we have 100% certainty, it'll likely be too late.

Another study debunks "global cooling"

Here is a great, if slightly long/technical, article discussing a draft study debunking the theory of "global cooling". You avid GreenMachine readers will have seen my "Fact or Fiction Friday" post two days ago on the subject.

Like I've said before, having a reasonable debate about the science is one thing. But peddling the same tired arguments day in and day out is only delaying the implementation of policies needed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and avoid dangerous climate change. Hopefully this latest study will put the kibosh on these misguided tactics.

Fact or Fiction Friday

Welcome back to the regularly scheduled Fact or Fiction Friday. This week's installment is what I like to refer to as the "doozy whopper" of all arguments that reject the science underpinning climate change.

Before we get started, please take a look at the standard disclaimer. Lastly, in the spirit of March Madness, let's have a good, clean game and no eye gouging.

Fact or Fiction: Global warming has stopped and cooling is beginning.

And the answer is . . . FICTION. "Empirical measurements of the Earth's heat content show the planet is still accumulating heat and global warming is still happening." For those of you who got this one right, pat yourselves on the back, maybe do a chest bump with a friend or colleague, and sing "One Shining Moment" as loud as you can.

For those of you who got this wrong, it's alright, that's why Fact or Fiction Friday is here. Check out SkepticalScience to learn more about the fallacy of "global cooling" and other arguments climate science skeptics turn to regularly.

Also, take a look at a couple of great articles from this week's Economist, one short and one pretty long. I don't agree with every line, but both reflect fairly well reasoned views on climate science, the latest dust ups, and why action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is necessary.